In my last post, I noted that Delhi is a city abuzz with change of all varieties. Having just attended a three-day conference addressing India’s rapid urbanization, I wanted to put that remark in a broader context.
Currently, the population of Delhi itself – a 1,500 square kilometer jurisdiction - is ~14 million people. But within the National Capital Region – a 12,000 square kilometer area – there are nearly 40 million people. Compare this to New York, with approximately 8 million people in the 5 boroughs, an area of 900 or so square kilometers, and just 21 million people in the broader metropolitan region – much larger than Delhi’s at 17.5 thousand square kilometers.
from Urban Age
One stark way of highlighting this data is to look at population in terms of density. Despite having no skyscrapers or substantial high-rise development of any sort, Delhi and New York have similar densities of around 9.5 thousand people per square kilometer. But Delhi’s maximum density – again, with no high-rise development – is almost 100,000 people per square kilometer, nearly double high-rise NYC’s maximum of 50,000 per square kilometer.
Delhi’s size and the need to effectively manage city space become even more critical when viewed through the lens of anticipated future growth. In the city-proper alone, the population is anticipated to double by 2020, rising to more than 25 million people. Prior to the economic recessions, NYC was predicting a population growth of just 1 million people by the year 2030. 1643 people move to Delhi every day. And this is expected to more or less happen every day, for the next decade at least.
As you can imagine, this type of rapid growth poses enormous problems for Delhi, and Indian cities in generally. Indian academics and urban planners are desperate to implement policies that shape this growth into liveable, sustainable cities and to avoid the trajectory of many other South American and Asian cities (and even New York) that only began developing comprehensive, integrated and inclusive planning mechanisms after periods of widespread social upheaval and startling economic polarization.
That task is a tall order. Governance is extremely poor in India, and this is particularly so in Indian cities. The “mayor” of Delhi – currently the much-beloved and very progressive Sheila Dikshit – is also the Chief Minister of the State of Delhi (much like D.C.). But significant portions of what would ideally be within her policy portfolio are instead relegated either to federal agencies or one of Delhi’s three municipal corporations, all of whom have poorly defined jurisdictions and are staffed with babus – India’s name for ineffectual, often-corrupt public servants who, in the urban context, are often rural transplants with skill sets that are woefully incompatible with city management.
(Often too, India’s obsession with the engineer class excises urban planners from the city building process, a prime example of this being the master plan for Gurgaon, a hellish satellite city of Delhi, whose guiding principle was a complex mathematical formula that resulted in an urban area with no sidewalks and 33% of all land area covered by roads.)
Poor governance also means poor enforcement capabilities. Indian cities recover only a fraction of levied taxes, fines and utility fees. Local laws are flagrantly violated, with enforcement rare.
All of this means that, despite several concerted efforts to develop “master plans”, most cities in India – Delhi perhaps in particular – are facing serious problems and responding insufficiently. 24% of India’s urban population lives in absolute poverty. 40 million people in India’s cities still live in slums, and, despite rising costs of living, only 16% of Indians in urban areas earn more than 11,000 rupees/month (~$230/month). In Mumbai, 63% of residents still defecate in the open. And in Delhi, 50% of its historic structures –potential development assets - have been lost in the last 90 years due to mismanagement and neglect. In Delhi, the water and energy supply are becoming increasingly scarce (for those who had them in the first place), with outages in many areas frequent and often lasting for days. Sanitation facilities are poor at best. The municipal corporations have no way of knowing where pipes exist, which leads to frequent backups and innumerous illegal overflows into the Yamuna, the river that courses just to the east of Delhi’s downtown center.
And if one thing is making all of these indicators worse, it’s the rise of India’s car culture. In 2002, the last year for which I have accurate statistics, India’s air pollution ranked worst in the world for large cities. Delhi had 8 or 9 times the particulate matter of New York City, and in nearly every fiscal quarter since 2002, car purchases have increased in India by double digits. In 2004 there were 4.5 million registered motor vehicles in Delhi, with motorcycles most prevalent, followed by cars. As car ownership increases, this trend is changing, and though motorcycles are still the most popular form of transportation, cars are quickly closing the gap. Every day, 150,000 cars ply the 8 line highway between Gurgaon and Delhi alone, leading to a 10 minute average wait time at the toll booth, even with the widespread implementation of EZ-Pass-type technology.
from Urban Age
And in India, cars are not respectful of boundaries. Dedicated – and segregated – bicycle lanes are crowded with auto rickshaws. Cars crowd dedicated Bus Rapid Transit lanes. Traffic is pervasive and unavoidable. And so far, the government’s response has been to invest in costly flyovers, elevating one road over another. But these infrastructural modifications are almost always implemented discretely, with no integration into a broader planning effort. Zooming over a flyover, you’ll quickly be stopped at the next light, which hasn’t been changed to reflect modified traffic patterns. Even more importantly, this investment in road infrastructure has been detrimental to equivalent investment in alternative modes of transformation, most notably walking. Only around 10% of Delhi-ites own cars, which means the vast majority take public transportation, bike, or walk. But Delhi is a city of crumbling sidewalks, where they exist at all. Pedestrian fatalities – at the hands of automobiles – remain a leading cause of death. And beyond all of these quantitative metrics, the shift towards a car-dominated urban form represents a serious move away from ideas of sustainability, inclusivity, and livability.
Despite these obstacles, Delhi is a city that is gradually developing appropriate responses and solutions. An enormous metro system is nearly complete. The pilot stages of what will be a vast BRT network has been successful (assuming you’re not a privileged car owner). Delhi will host the Commonwealth Games this summer. A federal urban renewal scheme is pouring billions of dollars into urban infrastructure. And increasingly, citizens and private firms are contributing to conversations about the city’s future. For someone interested in city administration and planning, the potential of Delhi is unparalleled. But progress will likely be slow. Power needs to be centralized and granted more authoritatively to the municipality. The organizational and administrative structure needs to be more holistically integrated. The civil service needs to be reformed, anti-corruption measures enhanced, and enforcement mechanisms developed. And the government needs to start communicating with its residents and become more of a public-facing institution, in order to change behaviors and ensure the successful implementation of key initiatives. And beyond all of these reforms, service delivery needs to become effective. Land use policies need to be developed. Delhi needs to involve its citizens (all of them, not just the car-driving, well-educated elite)and visitors alike in a comprehensive discussion of what it wants the future to look like, what matters most to the people living here.
As for me, I’m still digesting three days of extensive discussions about what this future might look like, and will post my own thoughts here from time to time. I’ll also post more information about some of the urban management strategies Delhi has developed, or is developing, that I find particularly promising, with resonance beyond India, for cities around the world.
